Markets/Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Market Price

38%YES

62%NO

Vol 24h$433

Liquidity$27K

Bid / Ask37% / 38%

Spread1.00pp

ClosesDec 31, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?" at 38% YES / 62% NO. In the last 24 hours, $433 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 36%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-03). "Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 38%, NO 62%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2109513