Markets/Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?

Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:27 AM UTC

Polymarket Price

36%YES

65%NO

Volume 24h

$4K

Liquidity

$6K

Bid / Ask

34% / 37%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

36%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-5.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

41% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Trough probability

28% YES — lowest in period

Mar 4, 2026

Biggest move: +10.5pp

30% → 41%

Mar 5, 2026

Current

36% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 36%99%

Buy YES@ 36¢

Edge

+1.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.8%

½ Kelly0.4%

Buy NO@ 65¢

-0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?" at 36% YES / 64% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 36%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 36%, NO 64%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/656312