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Markets/Will Opinion launch a token on March 5?
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Will Opinion launch a token on March 5?

Closes April 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

100%YES
0%NO

Volume 24h

$0

Liquidity

$0

Expert Signal

99%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence0%
methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+72.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

27% YES

Feb 25, 2026

Trough probability

9% YES — lowest in period

Feb 25, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

55%

Feb 26, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Feb 27, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

49%

Mar 1, 2026

Biggest move: +40.5pp

33% → 74%

Feb 27, 2026

Peak probability

99% YES — highest in period

Mar 2, 2026

Current

99% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 3, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 99%99%
Buy YES@ 99¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 1¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Opinion launch a token on March 5?" at 100% YES / 0% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 99%. The market closes on April 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Opinion launch a token on March 5?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1430129