ForecastMind
Markets/Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-03?
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Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-03?

Closes April 3, 2026

Polymarket Price

77%YES
24%NO

Volume 24h

$383K

Liquidity

$882K

Bid / Ask

75% / 76%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

77%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-03?" at 77% YES / 23% NO. In the last 24 hours, $383K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 77%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-03). "Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-03?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 77%, NO 23%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1668534

Outcome Markets3 markets

This event has 3 active outcome markets. Paris Saint-Germain FC: 77%, Elche CF: 21%, Toulouse FC: 8%.

Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-03?

77%
Elche CF win on 2026-04-03?
21%
Toulouse FC win on 2026-04-03?
8%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

78% YES

Apr 3, 2026

Current

77% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 3, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 77%99%
Buy YES@ 77¢
Edge

+0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly2.1%
½ Kelly1.1%
Buy NO@ 24¢

-2.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 2.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this