Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-22?

Market Price

100%YES

0%NO

Vol 24h$938K

Liquidity$876K

Bid / Ask100% / —

ClosedApr 22, 2026

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

✦ Unlock with Pro

Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets12 markets

This event has 12 active outcome markets. Paris Saint-Germain FC: 100%, Elche CF: 100%, Manchester City FC: 94%.

Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-22?

100%

Elche CF win on 2026-04-22?

100%

Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22?

94%

Price History · 30 days

Export CSV

Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+15.5pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-22?" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $938K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on April 22, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-22). "Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-22?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1924248