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Markets/Will Park Jae-ho win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?
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Will Park Jae-ho win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?

Closes June 3, 2026

Polymarket Price

0%YES
100%NO

Volume 24h

$4K

Liquidity

$7K

Bid / Ask

0% / 0%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+100.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Park Jae-ho win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on June 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Park Jae-ho win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/679157

Outcome Markets31 markets

This event has 31 active outcome markets. Park Chan-dae: 93%, Chong Won-oh: 74%, Park Heong-joon: 21%.

Park Jae-ho win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?

0%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.0pp

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 1%99%
Buy YES@ 1¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this