Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
Closes June 3, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$19K
Liquidity
$16K
Bid / Ask
8% / 8%
Spread
0.20pp
Expert Signal
8%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
2026
36 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
3% YES
Mar 2, 2026
Current
8% YES (+0.7pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.6%
EV per $ wagered
-0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election" at 8% YES / 92% NO. In the last 24 hours, $19K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 8%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on June 3, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election." Prediction market snapshot: YES 8%, NO 92%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/678934
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