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Markets/Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
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Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

38%YES
62%NO
Vol 24h$4K
Liquidity$19K
Bid / Ask36% / 39%
Spread3.00pp
ClosesOct 5, 2026

FM Estimate

35%

Market Price

38%
↑ Overpriced 2.8pp
Macro fundamentals-5.1pp
Historical patterns-1.0pp
medium confidence · 2 signals

Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets5 markets

This event has 5 active outcome markets. Parti libéral du Québec: 38%, Coalition Avenir Québec: 8%, Parti conservateur du Québec: 1%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~54%.

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

+0.5pp

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?" at 38% YES / 62% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 38%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00pp. The market closes on October 5, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-17). "Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 38%, NO 62%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/789408