Markets/Will Perplexity AI announce bankruptcy before 2027?

Will Perplexity AI announce bankruptcy before 2027?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 10:17 PM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

7%YES

93%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$1K

Bid / Ask

6% / 8%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

15% YES

Mar 1, 2026

Current

15% YES (-0.5pp recent)

Mar 5, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 7%99%

Buy YES@ 7¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 93¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Perplexity AI announce bankruptcy before 2027?" at 7% YES / 93% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 7%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Perplexity AI announce bankruptcy before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 7%, NO 93%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/693967