Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $75B and $100B at market close on IPO day?
Closes December 31, 2027
ForecastMind sees this -0.8pp below current market price; market at 4% may be overpriced with macro signals showing S&P +0.6% ↑, VIX +2.6% ↑, 10Y yield -1bps ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$3K
Liquidity
$3K
Bid / Ask
3% / 5%
Spread
1.60pp
Expert Signal
4%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $75B and $100B at market close on IPO day?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 1.60 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2027.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-06). "Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $75B and $100B at market close on IPO day?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1115934
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
5% YES
Mar 31, 2026
Current
5% YES (+0.1pp recent)
Apr 1, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-4.8%
EV per $ wagered
+0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this