Will Perplexity’s market cap be greater than $100B at market close on IPO day?
Closes December 31, 2027
ForecastMind sees this +4.4pp above current market price; market at 7% may be underpriced with macro signals showing S&P +0.9% ↑, VIX -6.3% ↓, 10Y yield -5bps ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$4K
Liquidity
$3K
Bid / Ask
6% / 7%
Spread
1.10pp
Expert Signal
7%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Perplexity’s market cap be greater than $100B at market close on IPO day?" at 7% YES / 93% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 7%. The bid-ask spread is 1.10 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2027.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Will Perplexity’s market cap be greater than $100B at market close on IPO day?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 7%, NO 93%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1115935
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
7% YES
Apr 9, 2026
Current
7% YES (-0.2pp recent)
Apr 9, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+5.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this