Markets/Will Pete Hegseth be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

Will Pete Hegseth be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$4K

Liquidity$0

ClosesDec 31, 2026

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

This market's relevance is amplified by the divergence in related forecasts, with a significant 41% probability assigned to Pete Hegseth leaving the Trump administration before 2027, yet a 0% chance of him being the *next* to depart the cabinet. This suggests a nuanced market sentiment, potentially anticipating a future departure but not imminent action relative to other cabinet members.

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Pete Hegseth be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Pete Hegseth be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1834866