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Markets/Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30?
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Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30?

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

55%YES
46%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$4K

Bid / Ask

55% / 57%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

55%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30?" at 55% YES / 45% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 55%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-02). "Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 55%, NO 45%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1811191

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

55% YES

Apr 2, 2026

Current

55% YES (+1.0pp recent)

Apr 2, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 55%99%
Buy YES@ 55¢
Edge

+0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.1%
½ Kelly0.5%
Buy NO@ 45¢

-1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this