Will Praggnanandhaa R win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
Closes April 17, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$6K
Liquidity
$73K
Bid / Ask
6% / 7%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
7%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Praggnanandhaa R win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?" at 7% YES / 93% NO. In the last 24 hours, $6K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 7%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 17, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-03). "Will Praggnanandhaa R win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 7%, NO 93%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1632630
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
14% YES
Mar 30, 2026
Trough probability
6% YES — lowest in period
Apr 1, 2026
Biggest move: -10.5pp
16% → 6%
Apr 1, 2026
Current
7% YES (+1.0pp recent)
Apr 2, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+7.7%
EV per $ wagered
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this