Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30?
Closes April 30, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$22K
Bid / Ask
4% / 5%
Spread
0.50pp
Expert Signal
4%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.50 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-04). "Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1693056
This event has 4 active outcome markets. April 30: 5%, April 30: 4%, April 30: 3%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~85%.
Qatar strike Iran by April 30?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
5% YES
Apr 4, 2026
Current
4% YES (-0.2pp recent)
Apr 4, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-8.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this