Markets/Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$222K

Liquidity$261K

ClosesJun 7, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets17 markets

17 deadline markets. Combined YES = 102% — 2pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Keiko Fujimori

Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential el

66%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino

Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presi

34%

Rafael Belaúnde Llosa

Rafael Belaúnde Llosa win the 2026 Peruvian presiden

—

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $222K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on June 7, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/947284