Markets/Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open?

Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open?

Market Price

1%YES

99%NO

Vol 24h$11K

Liquidity$14K

Bid / Ask1% / 1%

Spread0.70pp

ClosesJun 7, 2026

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets41 markets

41 deadline markets. Combined YES = 103% — 3pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Jannik Sinner

Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open

66%

Alexander Zverev

Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open

Rafael Jodar

Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-1.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $11K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.70pp. The market closes on June 7, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-28). "Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1087553