Markets/Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Market Price

2%YES

98%NO

FM Estimate

1.9%

Vol 24h$4K

Liquidity$662K

Bid / Ask2% / 2%

Spread0.10pp

ClosesNov 7, 2028

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets63 markets

63 deadline markets. Combined YES = 176% — 76pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Democratic

Democratic win the Presidency in 2028

62%

Gavin Newsom

Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential no

26%

Rahm Emanuel

Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential no

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

+1.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on November 7, 2028.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/559669