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Markets/Will Railbird self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?
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Will Railbird self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

60%YES
41%NO

Volume 24h

$1K

Liquidity

$4K

Bid / Ask

59% / 60%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

60%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Railbird self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?" at 60% YES / 40% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 60%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-02). "Will Railbird self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 60%, NO 40%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1819217

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

60% YES

Apr 2, 2026

Current

60% YES (+0.5pp recent)

Apr 2, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 60%99%
Buy YES@ 60¢
Edge

+0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.2%
½ Kelly0.6%
Buy NO@ 41¢

-1.2%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.8% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.2%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this