Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-03?

Market Price

100%YES

0%NO

Vol 24h$360K

Liquidity$257K

Bid / Ask67% / 68%

Spread1.00pp

ClosedMay 3, 2026

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+36.5pp

Why this matters

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-03?" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $360K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on May 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-03). "Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-03?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2030752