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Markets/Will Reform Party (RP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?
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Will Reform Party (RP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?

Closes June 3, 2026

Polymarket Price

0%YES
100%NO

Volume 24h

$1K

Liquidity

$41K

Bid / Ask

0% / 0%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

1%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence0%
methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Reform Party (RP) win the 2026 South Korean local…

2026

Full event →

5 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

0% YES

Mar 18, 2026

Current

0% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 19, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 1%99%
Buy YES@ 1¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Reform Party (RP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 1%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on June 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Reform Party (RP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/703991