Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Closes November 3, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$757
Liquidity
$31K
Bid / Ask
0% / 0%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
1%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in…
2026
23 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
0% YES
Mar 10, 2026
Current
0% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 20, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $757 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 1%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on November 3, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/628936
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