Markets/Will Rob Sand win the 2026 Iowa Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Rob Sand win the 2026 Iowa Governor Democratic primary election?

Data as of Mar 29, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC

Closes June 2, 2026

Polymarket Price

96%YES

4%NO

Volume 24h

$325K

Liquidity

$18K

Bid / Ask

96% / 97%

Spread

0.60pp

Expert Signal

96%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

96% YES

Mar 29, 2026

Current

96% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 29, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 96%99%

Buy YES@ 96¢

-0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 4¢

Edge

+11.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.4%

½ Kelly0.2%

Buy NO—+11.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Rob Sand win the 2026 Iowa Governor Democratic primary election?" at 96% YES / 4% NO. In the last 24 hours, $325K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 96%. The bid-ask spread is 0.60 percentage points. The market closes on June 2, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-29). "Will Rob Sand win the 2026 Iowa Governor Democratic primary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 96%, NO 4%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/904352

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