Markets/Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$136K

Liquidity$277K

ClosesJun 7, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets25 markets

25 deadline markets. Market implies ~32% chance none resolve YES.

Keiko Fujimori

Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential el

65%

Rafael López Aliaga

Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidenti

Roberto Chiabra

Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential e

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $136K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on June 7, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/947277