Will Rodrigo Rivera win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?
Closes March 22, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$568
Liquidity
$3K
Bid / Ask
1% / 4%
Spread
3.30pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
2026
36 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
0% YES
Mar 17, 2026
Current
1% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 20, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-7.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Rodrigo Rivera win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $568 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 3.30 percentage points. The market closes on March 22, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Rodrigo Rivera win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1122888
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