Markets/Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$242

Liquidity$72K

Bid / Ask0% / 0%

Spread0.10pp

ClosesJun 21, 2026

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

Roy Barreras's chances of winning the 2026 Colombian presidential election are currently priced at a mere 0% on Polymarket, showing no movement this week. This extreme pessimism suggests that despite a generally stable risk environment reflected in S&P 500 futures and the VIX, market participants see no plausible path to victory for Barreras at this juncture. The collective intelligence of traders indicates a strong expectation that he will not be a contender for the presidency in 2026.

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

✦ Unlock with Pro

Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets44 markets

44 deadline markets. Combined YES = 261% — 161pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Iván Cepeda Castro

Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Col

93%

Flávio Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential

44%

Roy Barreras

Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele

—

Price History · 30 days

Export CSV

Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-0.1pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $242 has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on June 21, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/569370