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Markets/Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
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Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

82%YES
18%NO
Vol 24h$2K
Liquidity$64K
Bid / Ask81% / 82%
Spread1.00pp
ClosesDec 31, 2026

FM Estimate

80%

Market Price

82%
↑ Overpriced 1.9pp
Macro fundamentals-4.1pp
Historical patterns-0.4pp
low confidence · 2 signals

Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets4 markets

This event has 4 active outcome markets. December 31, 2026: 82%, June 30: 48%, June 30, 2026: 18%.

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate
+0.5pp

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?" at 82% YES / 18% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 82%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-20). "Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 82%, NO 18%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/677366