Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
FM Estimate
80%Market Price
82%Wikipedia Attention
This event has 4 active outcome markets. December 31, 2026: 82%, June 30: 48%, June 30, 2026: 18%.
Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Price History · 30 days
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✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?" at 82% YES / 18% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 82%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-20). "Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 82%, NO 18%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/677366