Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?
18%YES
82%NO
Vol 24h$10K
Liquidity$33K
Bid / Ask17% / 18%
Spread1.00pp
ClosesMar 31, 2027
FM Estimate
19%Market Price
18%↓ Underpriced 1.4pp
Macro fundamentals+4.2pp
Historical patterns-0.4pp
low confidence · 2 signals
Wikipedia Attention
Price History · 30 days
Export CSVPrice History
MarketFM Estimate
+0.0pp
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?" at 18% YES / 82% NO. In the last 24 hours, $10K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 17%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on March 31, 2027.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-20). "Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 18%, NO 82%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1007579