Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Market Price
FM Estimate
1%This market reflects a zero percent probability that Sadegh Mahsouli will be head of state in Iran by the end of 2026. This outcome is consistent with the 0% probabilities assigned to related "Military action against Iran" markets ending in early April 2026, indicating a consensus that such actions, if they occur, will not preclude Mahsouli's rise to power.
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
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29 deadline markets. Market implies ~6% chance none resolve YES.
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Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end
Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026
Price History · 30 days
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Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $10 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1469750