Markets/Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$10

Liquidity$58K

Bid / Ask0% / 0%

Spread0.10pp

ClosesDec 31, 2026

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

This market reflects a zero percent probability that Sadegh Mahsouli will be head of state in Iran by the end of 2026. This outcome is consistent with the 0% probabilities assigned to related "Military action against Iran" markets ending in early April 2026, indicating a consensus that such actions, if they occur, will not preclude Mahsouli's rise to power.

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets29 markets

29 deadline markets. Market implies ~6% chance none resolve YES.

Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end

Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 202

65%

Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of

Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026

11%

Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end

Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026

—

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $10 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1469750