Markets/Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open?

Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open?

Data as of Mar 26, 2026, 07:39 PM UTC

Closes March 29, 2026

Polymarket Price

9%YES

91%NO

Volume 24h

$1K

Liquidity

$759

Bid / Ask

8% / 10%

Spread

2.40pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-33.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

37% YES

Mar 26, 2026

Biggest move: -24.9pp

29% → 4%

Mar 26, 2026

Current

4% YES (-24.9pp recent)

Mar 26, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 9%99%

Buy YES@ 9¢

Edge

+2.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.3%

½ Kelly0.1%

Buy NO@ 91¢

-0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open?" at 9% YES / 91% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 9%. The bid-ask spread is 2.40 percentage points. The market closes on March 29, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-26). "Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 9%, NO 91%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1692154

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