Markets/Will San Diego FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?

Will San Diego FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:33 AM UTC

Closes December 19, 2026

Polymarket Price

8%YES

92%NO

Volume 24h

$19K

Liquidity

$37K

Bid / Ask

8% / 8%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Austin FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?

2026

Full event →

30 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-3.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

11% YES

Mar 11, 2026

Trough probability

4% YES — lowest in period

Mar 17, 2026

Biggest move: -8.1pp

12% → 4%

Mar 17, 2026

Peak probability

17% YES — highest in period

Mar 17, 2026

Current

8% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 8%99%

Buy YES@ 8¢

-3.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 92¢

Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly3.0%

½ Kelly1.5%

Buy NO—+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 3.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will San Diego FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?" at 8% YES / 92% NO. In the last 24 hours, $19K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 8%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on December 19, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will San Diego FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 8%, NO 92%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1349166