Markets/Will San Diego Padres win the 2026 National League Championship Series?

Will San Diego Padres win the 2026 National League Championship Series?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:32 AM UTC

Closes November 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

4%YES

96%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$14K

Bid / Ask

3% / 6%

Spread

3.30pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+5.8pp

Key Moments

First recorded

6% YES

Mar 8, 2026

Peak probability

12% YES — highest in period

Mar 9, 2026

Current

12% YES (-0.3pp recent)

Mar 9, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 4%99%

Buy YES@ 4¢

-5.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 96¢

Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly5.9%

½ Kelly2.9%

Buy NO—+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 5.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will San Diego Padres win the 2026 National League Championship Series?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 3.30 percentage points. The market closes on November 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will San Diego Padres win the 2026 National League Championship Series?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1395733