Markets/Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?

Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:28 AM UTC

Polymarket Price

16%YES

84%NO

Volume 24h

$47K

Liquidity

$23K

Bid / Ask

15% / 17%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

16%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-53.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

71% YES

Mar 1, 2026

Trough probability

9% YES — lowest in period

Mar 16, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

46%

Mar 1, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

57%

Mar 2, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

46%

Mar 4, 2026

Biggest move: -30.5pp

62% → 32%

Mar 4, 2026

Current

17% YES (-0.5pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 16%99%

Buy YES@ 16¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 84¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?" at 16% YES / 84% NO. In the last 24 hours, $47K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 16%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 16%, NO 84%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1472019