Markets/Will Scottish Liberal Democrats win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?

Will Scottish Liberal Democrats win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$129K

Liquidity$15K

ClosesMay 7, 2026

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

This market holds relevance as the Scottish Liberal Democrats' 0% probability of winning the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election, alongside related markets also trading at 0%, suggests a consensus of extremely low electoral prospects. The broad absence of value indicates a significant underestimation of potential coalition dynamics or emergent political forces within the Scottish context, demanding further analytical scrutiny.

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets18 markets

18 deadline markets. Combined YES = 250% — 150pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Scottish National Party

Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 20

100%

the Swedish Social Democratic Party

Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most sea

91%

Scottish Liberal Democrats

Scottish Liberal Democrats win the most seats in the

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Scottish Liberal Democrats win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $129K has been traded. The market closes on May 7, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Scottish Liberal Democrats win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/922770