Markets/Will Sharif Street be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?

Will Sharif Street be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?

Market Price

36%YES

64%NO

FM Estimate

34%

Vol 24h$83

Liquidity$18K

Bid / Ask33% / 38%

Spread5.00pp

ClosesMay 19, 2026

Macro fundamentals-3.1pp

Historical patterns-1.0pp

low confidence · 2 signals

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets4 markets

4 deadline markets. Combined YES = 103% — 3pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

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Sharif Street be the Democratic nominee for P

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15%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

No historical data yet

Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues

VenueProb.YES %vs Poly

Polymarket

36%anchor

PredictIt

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Sharif Street be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?" at 36% YES / 64% NO. In the last 24 hours, $83 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 35%. The bid-ask spread is 5.00pp. The market closes on May 19, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-01). "Will Sharif Street be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 36%, NO 64%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/704188