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Markets/Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in July 2026 (ET)?
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Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in July 2026 (ET)?

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

5%YES
95%NO

Volume 24h

$253

Liquidity

$2K

Bid / Ask

4% / 6%

Spread

1.90pp

Expert Signal

5%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in July 2026 (ET)?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $253 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 1.90 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in July 2026 (ET)?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1345483

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-3.8pp

Key Moments

First recorded

17% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Current

13% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 5%99%
Buy YES@ 5¢

-2.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 95¢
Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly2.9%
½ Kelly1.5%
Buy NO—+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 2.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this