Markets/Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?

Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:28 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

41%YES

60%NO

Volume 24h

$43

Liquidity

$2K

Bid / Ask

40% / 41%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

41%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-6.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

67% YES

Mar 11, 2026

Trough probability

37% YES — lowest in period

Mar 17, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

47%

Mar 17, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

56%

Mar 19, 2026

Biggest move: -18.5pp

66% → 47%

Mar 17, 2026

Current

61% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 20, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 41%99%

Buy YES@ 41¢

Edge

+1.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.8%

½ Kelly0.4%

Buy NO@ 60¢

-0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?" at 41% YES / 59% NO. In the last 24 hours, $43 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 41%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 41%, NO 59%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1345482