Markets/Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in May 2026 (ET)?

Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in May 2026 (ET)?

Data as of Mar 30, 2026, 07:50 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

11%YES

89%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$2K

Bid / Ask

2% / 21%

Spread

19.00pp

Expert Signal

11%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-4.1pp

Key Moments

First recorded

16% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Current

12% YES (-0.7pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 11%99%

Buy YES@ 11¢

-0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 89¢

Edge

+0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.9%

½ Kelly0.5%

Buy NO—+0.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in May 2026 (ET)?" at 11% YES / 89% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 19.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in May 2026 (ET)?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 11%, NO 89%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1345481

Go Deeper

⬡

Entity Hub

All related markets, signals, and news in one view.

◎

Forecaster Signals

See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.

⇄

Venue Divergence

Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.

Correlated Markets

Markets whose prices move with this one.