Markets/Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?

Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?

Data as of Mar 30, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES

98%NO

Volume 24h

$1K

Liquidity

$2K

Bid / Ask

1% / 4%

Spread

3.20pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

2% YES

Mar 29, 2026

Current

2% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 2%99%

Buy YES@ 2¢

-16.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 98¢

Edge

+0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly16.7%

½ Kelly8.3%

Buy NO—+0.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 16.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 3.20 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1345487

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