Markets/Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?

Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?

Data as of Mar 30, 2026, 06:25 PM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

17%YES

83%NO

Volume 24h

$97

Liquidity

$712

Bid / Ask

2% / 33%

Spread

31.10pp

Expert Signal

17%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

Price History

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Price History

+0.4pp

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 17%99%

Buy YES@ 17¢

-1.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 83¢

Edge

+0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.7%

½ Kelly0.9%

Buy NO—+0.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?" at 17% YES / 83% NO. In the last 24 hours, $97 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 17%. The bid-ask spread is 31.10 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 17%, NO 83%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1345486

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.