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Markets/Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in September 2026 (ET)?
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Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in September 2026 (ET)?

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

9%YES
91%NO

Volume 24h

$287

Liquidity

$2K

Bid / Ask

2% / 15%

Spread

12.20pp

Expert Signal

9%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in September 2026 (ET)?" at 9% YES / 91% NO. In the last 24 hours, $287 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 9%. The bid-ask spread is 12.20 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in September 2026 (ET)?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 9%, NO 91%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1345485

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

5% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Current

5% YES (+0.2pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 9%99%
Buy YES@ 9¢
Edge

+4.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.4%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO@ 91¢

-0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+4.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this