Markets/Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?

Data as of Mar 26, 2026, 07:41 PM UTC

Polymarket Price

22%YES

78%NO

Volume 24h

$6K

Liquidity

$9K

Bid / Ask

22% / 23%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

22%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-3.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

26% YES

Mar 25, 2026

Current

22% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 26, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 22%99%

Buy YES@ 22¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 78¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?" at 22% YES / 78% NO. In the last 24 hours, $6K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 22%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-26). "Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 22%, NO 78%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1720655

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