Markets/Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:28 AM UTC

Closes July 20, 2026

Polymarket Price

15%YES

85%NO

Volume 24h

$37K

Liquidity

$1.3M

Bid / Ask

15% / 15%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

15%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.1pp

Key Moments

First recorded

15% YES

Feb 21, 2026

Current

15% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 15%99%

Buy YES@ 15¢

-2.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 85¢

Edge

+0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly2.3%

½ Kelly1.1%

Buy NO—+0.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 2.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" at 15% YES / 85% NO. In the last 24 hours, $37K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 15%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on July 20, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 15%, NO 85%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/558934