ForecastMind
Markets/Will Steve Ballmer be 3rd richest person on December 31?
Share on X

Will Steve Ballmer be 3rd richest person on December 31?

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

7%YES
93%NO

Volume 24h

$13K

Liquidity

$4K

Bid / Ask

3% / 10%

Spread

6.50pp

Expert Signal

7%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Steve Ballmer be 3rd richest person on December 31?" at 7% YES / 93% NO. In the last 24 hours, $13K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 7%. The bid-ask spread is 6.50 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Will Steve Ballmer be 3rd richest person on December 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 7%, NO 93%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1302399

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

7% YES

Apr 6, 2026

Current

7% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 7, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 7%99%
Buy YES@ 7¢
Edge

+5.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.4%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO@ 93¢

-0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+5.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this