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Markets/Will Steven Tisch be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
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Will Steven Tisch be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

11%YES
90%NO

Volume 24h

$9

Liquidity

$12K

Bid / Ask

9% / 11%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

11%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Steven Tisch be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?" at 11% YES / 89% NO. In the last 24 hours, $9 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-05). "Will Steven Tisch be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 11%, NO 89%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1370732

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

11% YES

Apr 4, 2026

Current

10% YES (-0.5pp recent)

Apr 4, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 11%99%
Buy YES@ 11¢
Edge

+4.8%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 90¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+4.8% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this