Markets/Will Strava’s market cap be between $3B and $4B at market close on IPO day?

Will Strava’s market cap be between $3B and $4B at market close on IPO day?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:30 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2027

Polymarket Price

26%YES

74%NO

Volume 24h

$883

Liquidity

$1K

Bid / Ask

24% / 28%

Spread

4.00pp

Expert Signal

26%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+3.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

18% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Biggest move: -7.0pp

23% → 16%

Feb 28, 2026

Current

21% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 5, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 26%99%

Buy YES@ 26¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 74¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Strava’s market cap be between $3B and $4B at market close on IPO day?" at 26% YES / 74% NO. In the last 24 hours, $883 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 26%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2027.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Strava’s market cap be between $3B and $4B at market close on IPO day?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 26%, NO 74%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1185110