Will Suh Byung-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?
Closes June 3, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$40K
Liquidity
$8K
Bid / Ask
1% / 1%
Spread
0.20pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Suh Byung-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $40K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on June 3, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Suh Byung-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/679155
This event has 31 active outcome markets. Park Chan-dae: 93%, Chong Won-oh: 74%, Park Heong-joon: 21%.
Suh Byung-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-23.1%
EV per $ wagered
+0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this