Markets/Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$33K

Liquidity$337K

Bid / Ask0% / 0%

Spread0.10pp

ClosesOct 4, 2026

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

The market for Tarcisio de Freitas winning the 2026 Brazilian presidential election has seen a dramatic 50 percentage point price collapse in the past week, falling from 50% to its current 0% valuation. This substantial downward momentum suggests a significant shift in perceived viability for his candidacy.

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

✦ Unlock with Pro

Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets44 markets

44 deadline markets. Combined YES = 261% — 161pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Iván Cepeda Castro

Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Col

93%

Flávio Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential

44%

Tarcisio de Freitas

Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian president

—

Price History · 30 days

Export CSV

Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-0.3pp

Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues

VenueProb.YES %vs Poly

Polymarket

0%anchor

PredictIt

——

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $33K has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on October 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/601818