Markets/Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:32 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

3%YES

97%NO

Volume 24h

$887

Liquidity

$72K

Bid / Ask

3% / 3%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

3% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Current

3% YES (-0.5pp recent)

Mar 20, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 3%99%

Buy YES@ 3¢

Edge

+17.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%

½ Kelly0.2%

Buy NO@ 97¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+17.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $887 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/676743