Markets/Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Market Price

1%YES

99%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$3K

Liquidity$86K

Bid / Ask1% / 1%

Spread0.10pp

ClosesDec 31, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-0.7pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/676743