ForecastMind
Markets/Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q2 2026
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Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q2 2026

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

12%YES
89%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$1K

Bid / Ask

11% / 12%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

12%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q2 2026" at 12% YES / 88% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 12%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-08). "Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q2 2026." Prediction market snapshot: YES 12%, NO 88%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1846796

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

12% YES

Apr 7, 2026

Current

12% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 8, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 12%99%
Buy YES@ 12¢
Edge

+4.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 89¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+4.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this